Demographics/population Archives
April 26, 2005
[Insert ethnic group here] hysteria
Good to know that the Daily Mail's stand on refugees and immigrants is at least consistent. From an excellent and moving BBC 4 documentary I learn that the Mail campaigned vigorously for the expulsion of 4,000 kids brought to Britain for safety after the bombing of Guernica in 1937.
The Basque children deserved better but, because of the Government's reluctance to 'intervene' in the affairs of a sovereign state (which, of course, also led pretty directly to the fall of the the Spanish Republic to the fascists), they were taken care of by an entirely voluntary committee of ordinary families, many of whom subsequently adopted those kids orphaned by the fighting and subsequent purge, and who received no state aid at all.
The 1937 headlines (wish I'd noted them down) read strikingly like the Mail's latest crop of [insert ethnic group here] migrant scare stories.
March 24, 2004
Reports reports reports
In case you haven't had enough reports lately, here are two really fascinating ones. One that got lots of press when it came out last week (including useful summaries from The BBC and The Guardian) and one that got approximately none at all a couple of weeks earlier. The first, The Barker Review, is about housing policy. It's a proper, grown-up piece of economic analysis (and hence unquestionably naive and unpolitical) from a top Bank of England adviser but the message is simple: we need to build lots more homes in Britain and we need to get on with it. This is the kind of thing that gets the Today Programme and The Daily Mail steamed up, hence the press coverage.
The second, The local labour market effects of immigration in the UK, is probably even more important in the long run. It's from deep within the Home Office's Research Development Statistics department and its conclusion is understated but dramatic: “The perception that immigrants take away jobs from the existing population, thus contributing to large increases in unemployment, or that immigrants depress wages of existing workers, do not find confirmation in the analysis of data laid out in this report.” In the design of a rational future immigration policy, credible statistical analysis like this is going to be vital. Whether its conclusions can be made politically palatable or not is another matter.
The Barker Review of Housing Supply. Delivering stability: securing our future housing needs. HM Treasury, 17 March 2004. The local labour market effects of immigration in the UK (PDF), Home Office, 6 March 2004. The Home Office link is from Kenan Malik's weblog.
February 12, 2004
Our friends in the East
Britain, for the time being, is out on a European limb in regard to immigration from the ten accession states. This is a good thing. There's competitive advantage in being open to resourceful, economically-active migrants while other Nations aren't. While the UK economy is still growing strongly and while there are obvious gaps in our labour profile we should be pioneering an economically rational, open migration policy.
Different European nations will adopt different policies on incomers from the new member States. That is as it should be. A healthy European economy – especially in the more complicated, post-accession environment – is going to depend on diversity. A single, continent-wide policy on East-to-West migration will flatten regional development, close off opportunities for migrants and for Western businesses. It's fascinating that it could be population pressure from the East that produces the first really important divergence in National policy within the EU.
Such a big, philosophical divergence could be very productive for citizens of the enlarged Union. The more open nations will put growth ahead of internal stability and labour continuity – they could rush ahead of the more conservative, closed economies who'll set aside growth in pursuit of the quiet life. The busier, more open economies will build the capacity to soak up growing demand and they'll thrive.
This all depends on the continued growth of demand – in Europe and elsewhere – of course but we could begin to see a gap opening up between the slow-growth, closed economies (Germany, France, Holland and the other nations taking advantage of the accession treaty's full seven years migration protection) and a group of fast-growth, open economies. I'd like Britain to be in the latter group – responsive, risk taking and ready to shape a more open, diverse Europe. A free flow of labour, investment capital and ideas between Britain and the soon-to-be tigers to the East can only benefit all of us.
Here's an excellent article (with useful graphs) from Stefan Wagstyl in the FT (it's a real pity that so much good journalism is locked up inside FT.com, inaccessible to anyone who doesn't buy an expensive subscription).
January 09, 2004
The trouble with getting old
If you've got an ft.com subscription you should read Martin Wolf's article about population and pension provision from 6 Jan. He nicely lays out the main issues (with charts) and illustrates a) that we need to make some really bold changes if we're going to avoid pension meltdown and b) that no single measure will solve the problem – we need to raise the retirement age, get more women into the workplace, boost the birthrate and increase immigration.
The main problem with these tough decisions is that politicians can't (I mean just can't) make them because they fall into that category of decisions that have really big benefits in the long-term but are really unpleasant in the short term. Long-term: the next generation (or the one after it) all get adequate pensions for twenty or thirty years of healthy old age. Short-term: our generation has to work until we're 70 and have more kids while we're at it and the usual suspects will get hot under the collar about a larger immigrant population.
My conclusion is that political short-termism means we're going to have to go quite a long way into our own National pensions crisis (a lot of people – mostly poor, under-insured people – will have to suffer) before we'll actually do anything about it. Meanwhile, go and talk to your pensions advisor about boosting those contributions (if you don't want to subscribe to ft.com, Brad DeLong provides more quotes – because he is a good person and can be bothered).
September 27, 2003
Keeping London's motor running
From The Economist a few weeks ago (so this is for the outboard brain), an excellent leader and cover story about immigration – particularly to London. As a London fanatic (living in the outer suburbs) my greatest fear for my favourite city is that it should stagnate, slow down, dry up. Immigration has kept London alive and well for hundreds of years and, thankfully, it shows no sign of letting up. These pro-immigration articles are bracing, free-trader antidotes to know-nothing tabloid whinging.December 23, 2002
Readership in need of renewal
Peter Preston highlights the effects on newspaper publishing of the UK's falling birthrate and aging population.